Showing posts with label Money and Freedom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Money and Freedom. Show all posts

Friday, December 11, 2015

Natural price levels for Bitcoin


Bitcoin is the strangest form of currency ever developed in the human history. Starting from January 2009, it rose to the levels over $1000 in January 2014. After that, its price crashed drastically and stayed around $250 throughout the first ten months of year 2015 but of late, it has started again rising and volatility is very sharp. It jumped to nearly $476 in a very short period of around a week and then dropped around to nearly $370. This is pretty sharp shift. (See Picture) Those interested in bitcoin tend to ask, “What barometer should be used for predicting bitcoin prices?
There is no definite answer to this question. Some people say that Chinese investors are rushing in to buy Bitcoin as many of them assume it to an excellent method of capital flight. Many rich Chinese who have amassed huge wealth want to shift it abroad and bitcoin enables them to avoid all forms of capital control. This may or may not be true because majority of bitcoin transactions happen in North America and Europe. The share of Asia-Pacific is very small in that. If Chinese elements were really active, the price of bitcoin would not fall rather it would have kept rising on and on. There is one more explanation being offered behind this sudden rise. As the crypto-currency ecosystem is maturing, the institutional support mechanism for bitcoin payments is falling in place. Merchants are adopting bitcoin as a mode of payment, more bitcoin wallets are being downloaded, more exchanges are being opened, more companies are entering crypto-money infrastructure like those in sidechains & altcoins and more banks are turning receptive to test the bitcoin space. This is a better reasoning though it only explains a part of the question. The real question is how far Bitcoin can rise and should rise. There is currently no framework for this answering this question.
If bitcoin is regarded as digital gold that works peer-to-peer
Let us try to answer this question. It is true that dollar is the world’s reserve currency but this is true more for the governments as they need dollars for international trade. For people, the true global store of value is gold. The second half of 19th century and in the 20th century till 1971, gold remained both the defacto and dejure global reserve currency as pound first and then dollar was pegged to it. People still regard gold as the true asset for hard times because it is acceptable to populations in all corners of the world. It is the true form of peer-to-peer money in a traditional sense. Bitcoin is called “digital gold” as its supply is fixed and any fresh incoming of this digital currency is through mining. So, like gold, bitcoin is a scarce unit of money. It is divisible and portable but bitcoin is more than gold in certain terms. It is a tradable gold. It is a technology platform too and a peer-to-peer network too. It can travel to any corner of the world without any chance of getting checked by any intermediary. In a way, it is a complete self-sustainable payment network for the entire world. What gold cannot do in terms of movement, bitcoin can do. It is censorship-resistant payment system that can work for multiple segments of global population. There are 200 million immigrants who send remittances to their native lands regularly. There are global telecom players who want a parallel revenue stream in addition to their sagging profits in voice and data market. If fiat currencies have cash-based network and they are yet to jump on to digital payments, the gap can be filled by mobile networks or message apps-driven systems of social networks like Whatsapp or Snapchat. The global hawala route may also jump on to this. Very few governments can counter the decentralized nature of bitcoin network. This is a great asset in the age of digital money. For a peer-to-peer exchange, bitcoin is a better bet than gold. So, it can be safely assumed that bitcoin would acquire at least the equivalent if not more than value of gold. 
Let us assume that true value of bitcoin should have been equivalent to one gram of gold. It comes down to around $40. This is the price that bitcoin crossed in year 2011. It means that in terms of gold, next barrier of 10 gm (1 Tola) should be tried. It comes down to around $400. This is the current market price range of bitcoin but we should not forget that bitcoin had touched over $1100 earlier. It means that an ounce of gold is the price limit that bitcoin has already touched. So, there are three gold-reference price barriers that bitcoin has already breached. That is why to guess a reasonable price level of bitcoin is not an easy task but the trajectory of growth in bitcoin prices does gain weight in terms of gold price references. That is why the popular consciousness assumes that price of bitcoin is expected to rise in direct proportion to its value in terms of gold. 

If we assume pound of gold as the next price barrier, this value comes down to around $17600 if current prices remain constant. If we go further to one kilogram of gold as the last price barrier, this would reach to over $38,000 apprx. Of course, this may seem a blatant case of speculation in short run but if people tend to regard bitcoin as digital gold, the long-term bet at these kinds of prices is not misplaced. What do we mean by long-term? It may be any period from 15-25 years from now. It cannot be predicted as to what price would be there in which year but it only reflects what people may think in terms of long-term positions on bitcoin.
If bitcoin market cap is regarded as equivalent to that of gold
There is another method of reaching a probability of price. Let us find what amount of gold is available for international trading. Let us evaluate in terms of market cap of gold. As per Wikipedia, the total gold reserves of the world were around 171,300 tonnes.
Source: Wikipedia
If we exclude gold used in jewellery, central banks and industrial categories and assume only half of gold in the investment and unaccounted categories, that amounts to over 18,000 tonnes. This is a very simplistic method but it can give us a rough market cap of gold that is being traded around the world. We should not forget that bitcoin is going to attract forex traders also where a single percent of investment can touch hundreds of billions but for the time being, let us only consider market cap of gold that flows across the trading platforms. This can become a good reference point as far as the price levels of bitcoin are concerned. At current prices of gold, this amounts to around $700 billion. This seems a figure that is the likely target of bitcoin market cap but when would it happen? If we give at least 25 years to above possibility, the average price would come out to be around 1Kg of gold (assuming constant price of gold) by the year 2040. Nobody knows whether it would happen but this kind of exercise of predicting future rise of bitcoin is an important one.
Utility and scale of Bitcoin wil drive its price 
Are we not over-estimating the potential of bitcoin? Is this framework really accurate? The answer is that even $700 billion market cap (if it happens) would make only a small fraction of existing monetary base of the world and further much smaller fraction of the global money supply. It is not to say that bitcoin would replace fiat currencies. The focus is price matrix with respect to gold and it is only to state that it can turn out as a good alternative as global store of value the way gold is. This may be off the mark but we should not forget that same thing could have been said four years back too but the reality is that number of bitcoin transactions have jumped 100 times in the same period. Today, the daily transactions are touching nearly 200,000 and to expect this figure to reach 20 million in next 10-20 years is not an impossible target.  This will definitely affect the price too. Nobody can predict bitcoin price in short term and nobody should. This blind game may be counter-productive both to the trader and the bitcoin itself too but long-term price trend is positive. This needs to be understood in the context of some related developments that are going to become major trends in coming years. The internet of things, cloud-based nature of software services, evolution of smart contracts, inherent weaknesses and inflationary nature of fiat currencies, real-time payments, universal adoption of smartphones by 2020 and 4G networks by 2025 are all the emergent features of global life that will make bitcoin a very acceptable solution. Let the critical mass around this technology be fully developed. As number of bitcoin transactions increase and its usefulness is proven beyond doubt, a natural mode of evolution will raise its price. Bitcoin is a true version of a global currency that has emerged from the grass-roots. The decentralized nature of its blockchain technology makes it a sustainable and scalable solution in the digital age. How far it would go is not clear but it would remain the most disrupting monetary phenomenon ever happened in human history.
(This was published on Economylead on 9th December, 2015)

Friday, November 27, 2015

A speech on Bitcoin that never happened

Recently at FIBAC 2015, Mr. R. Gandhi, RBI Deputy Governor delivered a speech, “Disruptive Innovation and Inclusive Growth – Some Random Thoughts” and two prominent themes in that speech were crypto-currency and crowd-funding. He expressed great possibilities hidden in these unique innovations of 21st century. To him, a “Crypto currency is a digital currency in which encryption techniques are used to regulate the generation of units of currency and verify the transfer of funds, operating independently of a central bank” and crowd-funding is “the practice of funding a project or venture by raising monetary contributions from a large number of people, typically via the internet.….it is a form of alternative finance, which has emerged outside of the traditional financial system.” Still, he does not find them desirable because they “both hope to operate in a regulator free environment. In matters financial… unregulated financial system has immense scope for depriving ordinary public of their hard earned money and therefore highly risky to be permitted to grow.…. Secondly, both have the potential to support criminal, anti-social activities like money laundering, terrorist funding and tax evasion.”
Such a speech by a senior RBI functionary seems quite a conventional way of saying both good and yet bad things about a paradigm shift in the world of money and finance. This change is so big that every big financial institution is working on it. British banks are seriously exploring it. London is not just the financial centre of the world but also the new Fintech capital of the world too. Federal Reserve is working on the new framework of real-time payments where members of Ripple team, the crypto-currency giant are also involved. Australian Banks are testing it. IBM, MIT, Santanders and many more are building advanced models of blockchain for use in financial industry. Against such a backdrop, the ideas of RBI deputy governor show less than adequate understanding of institutional changes that RBI may need to accommodate for the crypto-currency world in future. It seems that a lot of hard work is yet to be done on this front by the regulator. A better way of what could have been possible in this regard is to re- imagine the speech the deputy governor might have made.
1. The kind of traction that bitcoin has gained in less than six years is quite a challenging proposition for central banks. To be more precise, this is the challenge from the open source and decentralized nature of money and finance to the centralized regulators of the present world. The world is watching a bottom-up model instead of a top-down model that we have got almost used to. There would be nearly five billion smartphone users in the world in another five years. In a cashless society, the physical hold of a paper currency will need to be replaced by a mobile interface and technology back-end. It is a change that is totally new and disruptive for all of us. It may be a moment of creative destruction but if we remain unmindful, this destruction may not be creative too. It seems to be issuing a wake-up call to all the regulatory authorities as the nature of challenge is much deeper than is visible at present.
2. Bitcoin is the first-ever authentic digital version of a bearer asset. All physical currency notes are also bearer assets of multiple denominations. The natural leadership of a central bank emerges from the fungible nature of this bearer asset. It is the simplest and the safest mode of exchange. Central bank performs its seigneiorage functions with absolute quality and public safety. This public acceptance of RBI in its monetary grammar is a great asset. The challenge is to reproduce this kind of authenticity in the digital domain too. Bitcoin does have the first mover advantage but it is far away from the scale of fiat currencies. The time available should be used to reproduce the digital rupee payment network the way it operates on cash front. Payment banks are one way to take in this direction but to match equivalence of ease, efficiency and security of bitcoin, we need to go a bit further. The best way forward is to erase the friction of payment during transaction and conversion of rupee. We need to develop a core technology group on the lines of something like Ripple, Ethereum or Stellar like crypto-currencies. They provide sufficient variety of management alternatives that a central bank can replicate. With the help of institutions like NIPFP, C-DAC and NIC, RBI can develop in-house technology solutions based on blockchain.
3. Banking on tap for Indian market is already being given a serious push in the form of payment banks and small banks but banking needs to change not in terms of aiding financial inclusion but also in terms of reducing costs through seamless unity of payment platforms. The blockchain technology is the biggest gift of bitcoin. As all banks have similar systems for deposit management, payment systems, databases, credit and debit ledgers, credit card, lending and so on, this creates needless duplication of identical functions across banks and hence unnecessary costs for the banking industry. Blockchain can reduce it by creating industry-level systems of record in such a way that everyone can use them. What may be needed is some sort of “consortium blockchain” which in words of Vitalik Buterin is “a blockchain where the consensus process is controlled by a pre-selected set of nodes; for example, one might imagine a consortium of 15 financial institutions…… The right to read the blockchain may be public, or restricted to the participants, and there are also hybrid routes …… with an API that allows members of the public to make a limited number of queries and get back cryptographic proofs of some parts of the blockchain state.”
4. India has a unique and single register of identities/e-KYC in form of Aadhar. With its support, we can design a model of crowd funding. What is needed is that RBI must innovate on this turf by issuing an open-source software model of crowd-funding. The challenge is that this model has to be technology-centric as well as financially safe. This may be called LINUX of crowd-funding models. Micro-investments for crowd-funding can be modeled on the micro-payments and share issuance can be transparently seen on the blockchain. SEBI can join for this financial innovation. Small-cap companies or start-ups can be allowed to participate in this model. Instead of fighting against crowd-funding, we need to develop our own methods of easy and reliable fund generation. If this kind of public software can be made popular as well as mandatory for crowd-funding in India, this would also be paradigm shift in the role of central banks. From a money issuer to a technology-issuer, this would be a great achievement.
5. The fast rise of crypto-currencies beyond 600 in less than two years is not a happy trend and it is expected to cross 1000 in another couple of years. If even 90% of these currencies die, there would be around 100 such currencies still left and that would be still a great number to tackle. They are already emerging as the favourite medium for hawala transactions as well as banned goods and drugs online. Despite closure of Silk Route, an online market-place for sale of illegal goods with bitcoin, there have emerged dozens of new ones. Tor network and proxy nature of servers make it too difficult to stop them. Defense may not be right strategy for central banks as far as crypto-currencies are concerned. It seems that time has come for all central banks to come together and start working on this challenge. More is the friction between currencies; more is the incentive to shift to alternative crypto-currencies. A user cannot make instant micro-payment across currencies with enough ease and at low cost. This can be corrected by ending the fragmented nature of our monetary systems. We need to remove the multiplicity of standards and protocols and reduce the compliance cost too. The need for cooperation and collaboration is so high that inter-currency payment friction should be eliminated with only one goal of real time payments. The entire world should move towards this goal and there should be no lapse in it. If fiat currencies can do what crypto-currencies are doing, with a much better record of public acceptance, scale and efficiency, the world may not need so many of crypt-currencies. 
(This post was published on 26th October, 2015 at the web portal, India Bitcoin, a news portal maintained by Unocoin, a premier Bitcoin Exchange of India)

Monday, August 18, 2014

India as a zone of secular stagnation

Have we ever bothered to notice one serious trend in India in last couple of decades? Whatever business stream generates profits more than the average return on FD (Fixed Deposit), suddenly finds a deluge of investments even if these investments are not legal. Think of thousands of engineering colleges, business schools, B Ed colleges, Electronics showrooms, Shopping Malls, CBSE Schools, Real Estate business, Gold jewellery, telecom business and many more. The profitable business cycle shrinks so fast that it soon turns into a negative zone where returns are less than interest earned on a FD. It is ironical wherever the money moves, a short stint of profit is followed by a long-term secular stagnation of profits. In last sixty years, the share of industry in the GDP has not drastically improved (not even doubled or increased by double digits even). The fact is that all businesses are dependent on the climate of Indian business that feeds upon the inertia of the past. Private money follows a linear pattern and not a holistic design in India. Improvisation and research are the last priorities in the Indian business. The upper middle class that holds money, is actually sitting with an education system that is non-innovative, a government system that is deeply fragmented and dysfunctional and the institutions that are outdated. Indian money men are the poorest chaps on earth these days. Think of a businessman who invested 2 crores on his Electronics showroom some three years back and today, he is running daily losses because of losing business to e-retail giants. The best of business efforts are ending up in a long-term loss making proposition which one assumes to survive through because the debt burden keeps postponing the immediate shock but keeps increasing the vulnerability. The real reason for this sustained loss of money and effort is the prevailing deluge of herd mentality. Everybody thinks short term and everybody suffers in long term. We need to build business models where human intelligence is more critical than simply the availability of money capital. What is made with earned wisdom will stay with us for years and decades. What makes Germany a world manufacturing nation despite global recession? What makes US entrepreneurial hub of the world? What makes Britain the global financial centre? These are the goals that were decided decades back (if not centuries) and pursued with rigour whatever party may rule the country.

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

RETHINKING MONEY-9

Can we imagine something that seems a bit odd today? There is a digital currency called Ripple. There are more than 8 billion ripple coins in the global market. They are worth over $50 million today. They offer transactions in all major currencies of the world as well as the gold. There is no need of any bank or financial institutions involved and hence no transaction cost involved. Its cost is very near what was the worth of Bitcoin in 2009 just after its discovery. Still, every day, over $100,000 worth of Ripples are bought and transacted. Let us assume that some company like Amazon, Facebook, Alibaba, Google, Microsoft or Apple or a group of them decides to make Ripple payment another alternative payment currency sometime in 2016. Suddenly, the network that is limited to some lakh users shall immediately shift to hundreds of millions of users. The credibility stamp of such a big network shall add a big worth to this digital currency. Don't forget that this ripple coin is like electronic version of gold. There is an upper limit to the number of ripple coins that can be issued unlike paper currencies that can have unlimited money supply. It means that possibility of embedding digital currencies in existing social and media networks is huge. That is why the monetary scene in the world is sitting at tenterhooks. Once these are gone, people will change money so fast that no national system can adapt accordingly. This will be like a computer virus that will spread to millions in days if not in hours. That is why the anchoring of paper currencies to actual gold or silver is very important. No keynesian economist would accept such a possibility but that is the biggest fear that is stalking them at present. This may seem odd but for the imminent survival, they would have to anchor the paper money if they want to secure any credibility. An inflation ridden money is always like an uneasy burden. The moment a national citizen gets a credible global alternative, things would change very fast. I am talking of only Ripple coin at present but there are over 200 digital currencies like Ripple in this world. The chances of world currencies hitting a digital black hole is not very remote these days. I am not talking of big business or big banks rather i am talking of retail transactions. That is why no established voice or government agency is actually speaking of this danger because their interests are directly linked to status-quo. But this may not last for long because once people start shifting paper currencies with digital currencies, it would turn into an alternative revolution.

Saturday, July 26, 2014

Rethinking Money-8

What is the value of excess unused cash that lies with you? You will either keep it as it is or you will invest it in some financial instruments depending upon how much you can wait for the  expected returns. In most of the cases, you will keep some amount with yourself for your regular or emergency needs and save the rest in some time-determined instruments with some returns. This means that time and cash-in-hand is a very serious factor when you decide the valuation of your future returns. What happens when you think that time is not ripe for longer duration investments? Everything now comes down to the shorter duration. That means that you will turn all your time deposits into demand deposits even if they are in banks. For you, short term is very important if your money is not in your hands. In direct contrast to it, for banks, long term is very important if the money is locked in bank reserves. Short-term is a very dangerous zone for a bank. The bank does not earn from demand deposits rather it earns only from time deposits. In short term, they only incur expenses and don't earn money. The way banks manage their call money rates for very short-term cash-needs, is a story which many people know that it is bank's nightmare many times. Let us assume that there comes a time when people are not sure of the long duration and they turn most of their deposits from time deposits into demand deposits. The moment it happens, the chain starts and runs and will keep running like anything. The bank would simply lose all cash very soon if people don't trust the nature of time. In electronic age, the transfer of wealth from time deposits to demand deposits and from demand deposits to immediate cash is very less rather almost negligible. That is what makes the value of paper currencies very unsustainable. What a government does with money, will determine the future of currency and if government keeps printing money and sustaining inflationary economy, the time factor can kill any monetary system in very short duration. That is what is possible in electronic age if currencies are not pegged with commodities like gold and silver or any other reliable commodity. The moment there is crisis, people will lose trust in the currency and there would be serious backlash in the electronically managed transactional network. The lesson obviously is that time for non-anchored money is gone and we need to get back to Bretton Woods era when dollar was pegged to gold at the rate of $35 to an ounce of gold. If US federal bank could not pay back money, it was liable to pay back in terms of gold. I know that is too difficult at present but think of the catastrophe we can witness once the currency starts collapsing in electronic age. The age of money-throwing welfare state is over.

Friday, July 18, 2014

Rethinking Money-7

Have you ever thought of bank as a holder of cash? Just try to observe your relationship with bank in the smartphone and online age? Are you noticing that this is a strange age in a special sense? Today, you use cash as currency paper note. You are always in need of this cash and a bank is the provider of that cash. There is monopoly of bank in terms of providing cash flow to the people. But think if that currency note goes digital. This means that in a bank server, this is a digital figure or a bit of information. Similarly, when you use your mobile smartphone, tablet or computer for financial transaction, it means that your money is a just a digital figure or a data. Practically, there is no difference between you and the bank holding digital money. That makes you a digital equivalent of a bank. It also means that the bank does not have the monopoly it  used to have. What can happen if instead of banks, you and millions like you stop using any such currency. This will be equivalent of bank run because now, you are the real bank who holds money. Think if ten million people just exchanged a hundred dollar note for an unknown currency. It would be a figure of 1000 million worth of new currency. People will use the new currency but will dump the dollar. The one billion dollar cash would be gone for good.  Now, just forget this assumption for some time and read the following.............
Everybody says that dollar will eventually lose this status of reserve currency but nobody challenges the US power to stop the powers that challenge dollar. After all, the one who creates money out of thin air, would remain powerful till the world stops using that money. The people don't have an alternative. They created bitcoin but the too much of dollar cash in the hands of federal powers has already bought a majority of bitcoins and has locked it out of common man's use. The first warrior is dead but don't forget that the world is using at present over 200 digital currencies like ripple coins, dogecoins and many more. The world is like a big bank with dollar deposits in the hands of people and can you imagine how much money, people can exchange in a minute, an hour, a day, a week, a month or so on? When people choose to dump dollars for bitcoin like currencies, there will be change. This will not be bank run but rather, it will be currency run. The toxic inflation-driven cash will simply fly once mob starts doing it. Remember that people use money and by using that money, they make the creator of that money the king of users. No scholar can predict the timing of this change. Just think of the power of over three billion smartphones choosing to start something of this kind! People will change the system; governments won't.

Thursday, June 19, 2014

Rethinking Money - 6

Read reviews of "The Dollar Trap" by Eswar Prasad. He agrees that dollar is losing the credibility of a reserve currrency but it would continue primarily because it does not have an equivalent challenger. This is a particular case of linear imagination reaching nowhere. It can predict for some years but cannot see what can be the disruptive change. I thought that same could have been said of Pound in 1930s. I think that good scholars of money don't go much back into history before reaching their judgements. Why is it so that only two countries India and China controlled 60% of world trade for nearly 2000 years before 1849? There is something hidden in the intrinsic business and monetary models of these two countries that is fundamentally different from the western model of money. I don't know exactly what these models were but they were not definitely what we have today. In order to revisit our ancient business and trading strength, we need to merge three ideas- denationalization of money across the borders, choice of currencies for all the users and commoditization of money. These ideas are not unique but not tried in Indian context. Denationalisation of money means that we need to allow money flows with full transparency in and out of the country. Every year, there is hawala route transferring money in trillions across the nations. All money is national but works in a global reality with international forces of demand and supply. Why it cannot be a transparent exchange instead of being an illegal one? There have been 100 currency crises during last 40 years across the world. Nearly $100 billion of capital has moved out of India in last five years because the businessmen were deeply worried over the weakening and poor value of Indian rupee. Could they use a currency of their choice for whatever investment while sitting within India? If Indian rupee can bend before dollar, pound and euro and fetches a very poor exchange value, we need to create a better choice of investment available to Indian traders and business. Why to limit them to a choice where they will always have a weak exchange ratio? How to do it is a question but first of all, we need to realize the fact that Indian business is not happy with fluctuating and poor exchange value of rupee? Give the choice of currency to one and all beginning with those who can invest. Secondly, let there be more Indian currencies to choose from within India. Why cannot ICICI, HDFC, SBI, Vodafone, Airtel or Reliance issue currency with sound money standards? If they can issue shares, why cannot they issue currency notes? After all, a share is a guarantee of preservation of purchasing power. If govt cannot safeguard our purchasing power, let others take over this function if they can. It will be a minimum government with maximum governance. Third, a money without any anchor is vulnerable to arbitrary fluctuations but this thing can be stopped if there is commodity anchor in form of gold or silver. Some more commodity anchors can be tried. Let there be plural control of money. Today, a city is as large as a world and a world is as large as a village. You are a group both as small as only two and as large as 8 billion. If world can have many currencies, why a city cannot have many currencies? When this can happen without serious backlash or government interference or with popular support? This would be a reality particularly when we lose our fixation with paper currency notes and use electronic money. E-currencies are global and local simultaneously; so, the big change may happen any time after 2016, when global smartphone population crosses 200 crores. This would be ripe time for change-over. Be ready for that.

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Rethinking Money-V

The actual fact is that money is nothing but transfer of value from one to the other. But when the actual value as well as the supply of money is determined by a centralized monetary regime that controls prices, wages and interest rates, it becomes an absolute power for managing both present and future. We are in democracies but in terms of money, they are dictatorships; they allow only one kind of money definition and that definition is inflationist. Every saver is at loss when he saves money that is going to lose its value. The net beneficiary is the one who consumes and keeps consuming whatever may happen to the ecology and the poor. More cars mean more and more cars and more of petrol and more of traffic jams and so on. This kind of money defintion borrows prosperity from the future and saves the present from getting any lessons in sustainable development. It is like killing our kids who will see a planet with more pollution, less potable water, barren lands, industrial waste, ghost cities and townships and so on. We are all participants in this mindless money expansion that does not have any anchor. Neither dollar, nor gold, Yen nor Yuan or anything else. Everything is topsy-turvy in its core. The day is not far off when some financial virus would create havoc among current monetary orders and devastates it. Roman civilization was devastated by the inflation. Southern America lost to North America during battle of slavery because of the same factor. A strong and sound money is the only way future can be ensured. But the one who has power to print money, has the power to create more power out of thin air. This is the attraction of paper money. But this power is going to meet its nemesis. Currencies will fight currencies and none will win.

Rethinking Money-IV

Who owns the money or the capital? Particularly, the kind of money that belongs to common pool. For example, the money deposited by way of donations at a temple or a gurudwara. By this fact, there are thousands of tonnes of gold, silver and other valuable forms of stones etc deposited in the temple vaults. Who owns this money? If it is owned by the people, who represents the people - the government or the deity of the temple? If it is the government, it would be ultimately owned by the power elites of the current regime. If it is owned by the deity, it is owned by all those who respect that faith and faith related institutional network. India is governed monetarily by the western notion of singular control of money in the hands of power elites. They subvert it by choosing the term 'social contract' instead of any established faith-based practices. That is why any control of money by plurality of institutions is ruled out. We are ruled by monochromatic notions of monetary control. The central banks think in terms of only fractional reserve banking whereas the faith based institutions aggregate wealth by donation and philanthropic efforts thus by creating only the surplus and that too permanent surplus of capital. India needs to move from monochromatic control of money to poly-chromatic control where not one central bank would print money only. Anybody can print money but within the limit set by the amount of silver or gold, one has in its vault. There should be a straight-jacket on everybody not to issue money more than one is authorized to. Let there by thousand saviours of India and not the one saviour of India as is assumed by making Rupee the only legal tender option in India.

Rethinking Money-III

World money (WM) = National currency (N1)+ N2+ N3+ N4+.....................All central banks are printing more and more and this is exceptionally true for last six years. In this period, the world money has more than doubled which means that more money is actually pursuing less goods and services. At present, this is not fully visible across national markets because banks are keeping interests deliberately low across the developed economies and markets are very deficient in demand. There is no way bankers would accept any restraint on their power. The fiscal and monetary elites are hand-in-gloves with each other. Raghuram Rajan is crying for this non-system to end but nobody is listening. He may even meet much worse treatment at the hands of next government for taking this stand. This all is making the world move towards a monetary apocalypse- a world with high inflation, high rate of fluctuation of exchange rates and a total unpredictability of business decisions. This may lead to crumbling of welfare-state structures across many countries. The crux of the problem remains that we need to move from singular arbitrary monetary control to plural monetary control with gold-silver backed restraints. This is something that all elites would refuse till the last moment. All other solutions would only increase the arbitrary nature of money-printing or quantitative easing.

Rethinking Money-II

What to do when governments don't safeguard the value of money? Why money in India is so inflation-prone and turbulent in terms of all decisions regarding interest, wages and investment? After all, the reason lies with the discretionary power that lies with our governing elites. Whether you call it central banking, institutional politics or inefficient lending, the crisis still persists with the hidden arbitrariness behind determining purchasing power of money. How can this be curtailed? There are mechanisms but all of them are in the domain of parliamentary legislation. So, how to bell the cat remains the problem. Why would anybody restrain one's own power? Is it not possible to replicate a world currency model within India? Why cannot we have multiple currencies the way any global trader can have? But if US can issue a currency, why cannot HDFC bank or ICICI bank or SBI bank issue the same? Why the governments alone should issue a currency? Naturally, all governments would object to that. Let there be certain commodity standard behind all the currencies issued by both governments and non-government agencies. A currency that safeguards the purchasing power should be preferred over the one that does not. Let there be equal competition between the government and non-government agencies to claim the trust of people. So, does it mean that we should have gold or silver-backed multiple currencies available in India? Was it not the way India lived for thousands of years without serious national long-term inflation and unemployment?

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Rethinking Money - I

The problem with global monetary system is that it is controlled by singular authorities in form of national/regional central banks. Today, no such institution is talking to each other for global monetary balance. US is flooding the market with easy money; China repeats; Japan is doing the same and others are simply following. As a result, there is too much money being printed. If US does not listen or correct, nobody can do anything. After all, it is the lender of the last resort but today this lender is lending to its own government endlessly. So, it does not bother about the world. How to suck this excess cash in a unique way? Make governance of money be handed over to not singular but plural institutions. Let the RBI, all banks and financial institutions who can have minimum of 100 quintals of gold or 1000 quintals of silver should issue new currencies to the public so that there is an institutional and multi-pronged control on money supply. Let there be hundreds of different gold/silver-backed currencies and people should be free to choose the money they want to own. This will attract the global money and the entire world would follow the suit. The gold based system would suck the meaningless liquidity and stop the money printing by central banks. India has a lot of gold and silver with its people though the govt. does not have even 10% of that. India needs to be the leader by becoming a monetary Ganesha that gobbles up excess cash of global finance. But who will listen? Only when 80-100 Indian rupees would fetches one US dollar or it will fluctuate too violently. This single change would make India sone ki chidiya again.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Money, Moha and Mahabharata-III

यह इसी श्रृंखला का तीसरा भाग है.  फिलहाल इसे आखरी भाग कह सकते हैं.  पर मूल रूप से महाभारत-विमर्श में चल रही यह दर्शन-शाला का ही हिस्सा है.  आगे चल कर बहुत से और ऐसे रूप आपके सामने आएंगे.


Thursday, December 10, 2009

Money, Moha and Mahabharata-II

यह इस श्रृंखला में दूसरा हिस्सा है. क्यूंकि यह YouTube पर अपलोड हो गया, इसलिए इसे लिंक अप  करने में कोई अढ़चन नहीं आई.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Money, Moha and Mahabharata-I

इस श्रृंखला में दूसरी  विडियो अपने सभी पाठकों और दर्शकों के लिए उपलब्ध  है. पहले इस विडियो को मैंने YouTube पर अपलोड किया था पर दस मिनट से ज्यादा होने के कारण इसे रिजेक्ट कर दिया गया. छोटा करने की सोची पर इतने हिस्से का व्यास कुछ इस तरह का था कि आखरी तीन मिनट में एक वृत्त पूरा हो रहा था. इसलिए छोटा करना ठीक नहीं लगा तो box.net पर जा कर 5GB space खरीदी और वहीँ पर अपलोड कर दिया पर वहां समस्या यह है कि फाइल खुलने से पहले डाउनलोड होती है. चूंकि फाइल 108 MB की है, इसलिए कुछ लोगों को अढ़चन हो सकती है. इसका फॉर्मेट MPEG 4 है . अगर  windows  media player में न खुले तो VLC Media Player  से काम चल जायेगा. और हाँ, अवधिया बाबा की फटकार के लिए धन्यवाद. ऐसे लोग अगर चिट्ठाजगत में रहेंगे तो मेरे जैसों की भूलें ठीक होती रहेंगी.  विडियो देखने की लिए इस लिंक पर मोउस दबाएँ.
क्लिक करें

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

Money, Moha and Mahabharata Series

कुछ दिन पहले महाभारत के सन्दर्भ में जीते हुए एक मोह में उलझा रहा. ध्यान आया कि पुत्र मोह जिसमे मैं उलझा था उसकी दूसरी तरफ पैसे के मोह की तस्वीर थी. बस एक दिन गौरव बजाज के साथ बैठे-बैठे उसे बुनने की कोशिस शुरू हो गयी और एक श्रृंखला बन गयी. उसका पहली छोटी सी भूमिका यूं ही बन गयी.

Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Hernando desoto-a discovery for me

For some days or so, I have been reading something interesting thanks to a reference from Sauvik Chakraverti. It is about a Peruvian Economist, Hernando Desoto who re-invented the concept of Property in the informal or extr-legeal sector of the economy. I have been in the process of assimilating this brilliant thought in the context of Indian informal economy which is much larger than even the official GDP of the country. But as the idea is too profound for me to reflect immediately in detail, I am reproducing an article by Hernando Desoto that was published in the Time in April 16, 2001.

The Secrets of Nonsuccess by Hernando de Soto
"Picture a country, whose private property laws are so deficient that no one can tell who owns what. Where home addresses cannot be easily verified and people cannot be forced to pay up debts; a system where people cannot use their house or business as collateral to secure credit. Picture a property system where a successful business cannot split its stock to sell to other investors. Where there isn't even a standardized and commercially viable way to describe assets.
Welcome to the daily routine of the Third World, where five sixths of the world's population lives. Their living conditions embody a paradox: Capitalism should, supposedly, be the solution to global underdevelopment, however, so far it hasn't had the opportunity to prove it. What's even worse is that it hasn't even tried. In a capitalist economy all operations are based in the laws of property and its transactions, however, Third World property laws do not include 80% of its population's assets and transactions. The dispossessed are as far apart from economic activity, as blacks and poor whites once where under South African apartheid.
Why is this so important? Conventional microeconomic reform programs have always ignored the poor, assuming that they do not have the resources upon which to build and generate aggregate value. Flagrant error: I, along with my team of researchers, recently finished a series of studies on Third World underground economies and concluded that, in fact, the disposed are no so poor after all.

Their assets in Peru amount to close to 90.000 million dollars, or 11 times over the value of all the stocks listed in the Peruvian Stock Market and 40 times more than the sum of the foreign aid that the country has gotten since the end of WWII. In Mexico the estimated amount is 315.000 million, seven times more than the value of PEMEX, that country's national oil corporation.
The real problem lie in the fact the poor and the middleclass are not allowed to use their assets as the more privileged classes are. One of the great political challenges facing the Third World is to have these goods move from the "extralegal" sector, where they stand now, to a less excluding legal property system, where they may be more productive for all, in addition to generating capital for their owners.
Third World governments have already proved that it is possible to reform deficient property systems, at least when it comes to dealing with the rich. For instance, in 1990 the Peruvian Telephone Company (CPT) was quoted at 53 million dollars total value. However, the government was unable to sell CPT stock to foreign investors, due to problems with property titles over many of its assets. Peruvians decided to gather their best and brightest legal minds to come up with a legal title, in accord with standards set by the global economy.
As a result, the property was easily converted to stocks. Rules to protect third party interests and to generate enough confidence to attract credit and investors were generated. The legal team also designed laws for litigation in patrimonial cases, bypassing the cumbersome and corrupt Peruvian judicial system. Three years later, CPT entered the world of liquid capital selling for a total of 2.000 million dollars, or 37 times its initial market value. That's how far the power of a good property system can go. For the dispossessed to have access to legal titles for their assets so they can have a tool to free their potential capital, it would be necessary to know what is it they really own. How could we know this?
Nine years ago the Indonesian Government invited me as a consultant to identify the extralegal sector assets, in which 90% of its population lives. Far from being an expert about that country, I noticed that whenever I went to a rice farm a different dog came barking out. Dogs did not have to have a PhD to know their master's assets. Therefore my advise to their Cabinet members was for them to start "listening to these barks." Ah, Jakum Adat, the people's rights", answered one of the Secretaries.
The history of western capitalism tells in fact how governments, during hundreds of years, have been adapting "the people's rights" to uniform rules and codes that all could understand and abide by. Properties represented by dogs, fences and armed guards were turned into titles, stock and certificates. Once the west managed to focus a home property title instead of the house itself, it gained a great advantage over the rest of the world. Titles, stocks and patrimonial laws allowed to consider the goods, not just for what they are - a house as a refugee - but, for what they could be turned into - collateral to obtain credit to start a business - Almost seamlessly, through standardized property systems that integrate all, western nations build a stairway that allowed its citizens to claim up from the chaotic underground of the material world to a representative universe where capital is created.
Far from being a problem, the poor are in fact a solution. And now is the precise time for politicians to start thinking of them in these terms, and not the just the elites, who would be in charge to define property."



Friday, January 9, 2009

An Interview Series on Theory, Money and Freedom- 2.0

With Mr. Sauvik Chakraverti
Sauvik Chakraverti pursued higher studies at the Department of Government, London School of Economics and Political Science. He was for long a freelance writer, contributing to leading Indian newspapers. In 1998, he joined The Economic Times editorial team. Since then, he has been writing his fortnightly column: Antidote.
He is also the author of a much acclaimed collection of essays entitled Antidote: Essays against the Socialist Indian State (Macmillan, 2000). He has edited Samuel Smiles' Self-Help, published first in the 1840s, and published in abridged form by Liberty Institute, New Delhi. He is also the author of Free Your Mind: A Beginner's Guide To Political Economics published by the Centre for Civil Society, New Delhi.
Sunil Aggarwal (SA):- A couple of years back, John Nash, the famous proponent of the Game Theory and a controversial thinker picturized in a recent film ‘A Beautiful Mind’ came to India. He delievered some lectures on the notion of money. His lectures were focussed around the notion of “Ideal Money and Asymptotically Ideal Money” in which he criticized those who deplete/erode the value of money. In his trenchant critique, he even called the Keynesians ‘Bolsheviks’ of economics. The public response to his lectures was deadening silence then and afterwards. His focus was to maintain the purchasing power of the money as this is also the goal of a sound macroeconomic management as practised by the Central Banks but still, the entire idea almost got sidelined. How would you account for this silence in the Indian public space both at the level of discourse and popular reality?
Sauvik Chakraverti (SC):- I heard of this lecture immediately after that and discussed it with some friends on blogs and other internet forums. Let's take the point which is the constant debasement of money that is inflation, the Keynesian way. That is fundamentally evil because the people who print this money, then buy up the real resources at current price and the people who spend the money later receive it at the inflated prices; so this is a way of cheating everybody; it is a tax on poor people; it is inherently a corrupt idea and if it is an immoral idea, we can also call it an evil one. You are talking of the silence afterwards. The silence is because our educational system has been controlled by Marxians and Keynesians. The majority idea that has been made popular through media is actually a very statist idea of money. You can associate it in this fiscal stimulus nonsense. The whole media is in favour of lot of government money being spent to pep up the demand in economy. Everybody thinks that if government spends money, the common man in streets will benefit, but they're not able to see the evil design behind it. I will try to explain how this evil idea can be controlled.
The basic philosophy is very simple. That in a market exchange throughout history, the trade has been in real goods both ways. Nobody gave you something for paper. If you asked for a kilo of meat or fish, and you give paper in return, the guy will throw you out. You have to give copper, silver or gold in return; that means something material, in return. Now the paper money the way it developed, was actually a property title. If you had it, you could demand it from the issuer of the note the hard material money in exchange. Now, what has happened with Keynesians and the monetarists led by Federal Reserve, and the cartel of international central banks, you have a currency note, which is the property title without any property. So, I give zero property and I take property. So, I'm the issuer; it's like, if you go to a casino, and you put your gold on the table and the Casino guy gives you the chips to play with in the Casino, you play with the chips and come back with your winning chips and he gives you back more chips of a different colour. He doesn't give you back the gold. So it's an inherently corrupt practice, and the only way to remove it is to ensure that all paper notes are redeemable in hard money. Nobody should be able to issue a property title without the real property underneath.
SA:-Just coming back to the lecture of John Nash, you mentioned that you had some discussions with your friends on your blogs and other net forums. What was exactly your reaction?
SC:-I remember that we were all praising him for hitting out at the Keynesians. We were all very happy that he said those things and questioned the money. You will never find the Nobel laureate talking about money, because the Nobel Prize is itself issued by a central bank..... (Laughs)................ and this guy, the Nobel laureate, had the guts to talk about money and that was something great.
SA:-it's quite heartening to note that free money has been talked about for quite a long time now. Frederic Bastiat talked about it in 19th-century, there were number of people who attacked the idea of central bank governed money in 20th century. And now in 21st-century, when information revolution is at its peak and financial transactions are happening at the click of a button, still people are not able to de-link themselves from the statist idea of money. Why is this deeper kind of addiction still continuing?
SC:-The problem is that we are not teaching the subjects correctly. In fact, we're putting them into watertight compartments. You know, even in the era of pre-economics, take the example of Adam Smith, he wrote a book on Jurisprudence; he wrote a book called The Wealth of Nations; he wrote a book on moral philosophy; the point is we are not studying like that anymore. For example, economist study macro economics; then you have lawyers who study FERA, and they don't know each other and the political scientists are studying something else. So, a kind of integrated, holistic understanding of all the sciences is not proceeding anywhere. Maybe in Europe, they are trying to bring it back. But in America, it is not certainly going that way, nor in England, and in India, it is simply rubbish. All the time, they are studying macroeconomics, and they have no idea about the notion of money. Money starts by the way from Carl Menger, in his 1871 Book, “The theory of origin of money”. He has another book around 1893, (if I'm not mistaken) on the “Methodology in social sciences” including economics in which he gives theory of the origin of the law. Actually, you put both these theories together and you have a solution to all monetary problems. We need law to govern the money. We don't need regulation, mind you.
SA:-When I read your article “Funny Money” in the Times of India, it was an interesting reading when you distinguished between time deposits and demand deposits. There, you also suggested the legal remedy for correcting the definition of money. Do you feel that Indian system has gone too far away from that possibility, particularly in the context of the government expenditure going beyond control?
SC:-See, the thing is that I am a subversive philosopher; I don't drink to the health of the government of India; I don't drink to the health of constitution. I drink to a new Republic. Therefore, I believe in secession, making a new land of freedom, a kind of libertarian utopia somewhere sometime. The point is that one good bank is required. Today, mind you, after this one financial meltdown in America, Indian depositors are pulling out their money from multinational banks, taking their money out from stock market and spending it on the gold, which is a very sensible thing. This shows that if you have a bank anywhere in the world, which says that in my paper notes are supported 100% by specie, all deposits of the world will come to that bank and it will win in the fair competition. People will take their money and put it in a safe bank and this happened by the way in 1609 when the bank of Amsterdam was set up which David Hume and Adam Smith admired a lot. But the bank of England was not modelled after that on the same principle rather it was modelled after the corrupt bank of Sweden.
SA: So, in Indian case can we reinsert the legal distinction between time deposits and demand deposits?
SC:-See, it's a question of contract. We need to understand that the part of confusion that we have in our society and in our academia is because of the deliberate twisting of the words; they make the word change its meaning altogether. They say fixed deposits but it is not a deposit, it is a loan. So under contract, it should be a contract of loan. Demand deposits are the deposits which should be available on demand and it is a case of safekeeping. Here, the contractual terms are different. So, this will mean that the banks, which I also talked about in that article on funny money, about the Robert Peel’s banking act of 1942. In that particular act, Peel was trying to make money note convertible into gold on demand. But he did not pass any legislation on bank deposits. And now, a banker has to just issue a loan as a deposit in your account. He creates a credit out of nothing. You can read Murray Rothbard’s history of economic thought. It's in two volumes; the second one is more interesting. It contains all the debates between the currency school and the banking school during those times; how the currency school wanted to get the deposits converted into gold on demand but they did not pursue any legislation on banking deposit money. The banks kept on inflating the deposit money and the central bank had to repeatedly go back on its redemption promise until it was finally abandoned. The problem lies in a private banker having the ability to exchange nothing for something. So, there cannot be any central banking or there cannot be any cartel of banks without this fundamental fraud. On the contrary, the banks should compete with one another in the free-market regime provided they don't have the fraudulent ability to exchange nothing for something which means giving a loan. In the free banking literature, there is an option clause that a banker can delay the payment for a definite period though on a penal rate of interest. But again, it's a corrupt practice. It’s again buying something with nothing. This is the basic crux of banking mystery. Rather, it is the biggest bloody joke of the history.......... (Laughs).
SA: - Sometime back, I was talking to some friends who are from leftist background. I criticised their notion of money, which is too fiscal in nature. They are obsessed with transferring the wealth without making the transferring vehicle a stable one, which is money. They are so prone to tolerating inflation that they can't see the continuous erosion in the purchasing power that a common man should save. The hundreds of goods, a commoner has to buy in the market are purchased under the fact of eroding money. But the government and its distribution system can ensure only selective availability of selective resources, but it cannot ensure the stability of universal delivery mechanism, that is money itself.
SC:-it's all a racket, but the good news is that it is now an endgame situation today. They cannot continue it anymore because the price of money has already reached zero. See the US Federal reserve there, you can take the money at zero rate of interest and still there are no takers. Nobody wants it anymore. They want to lend forcibly to the people so that again a bubble will be created.
SA: - like in post-1971.
SC: - Yes.
SA: - In 1971, the gold was $35 to an ounce, and now it's around $890 to an ounce. So, it's around more than 24 times.
SC:-It's a disgrace to all economists. Every economist should hang his head in shame that he said nothing about the constant erosion of money. At least, I didn't do that.
SA:-Do you think there are some studies coming up from emerging groups of scholars who are really working in this direction?
SC:-There are not many. But definitely, there is one. Recently a book on ‘Money and Banking’ came from him. He is Jesus Huerta Desoto. He teaches in a Spanish university. This work on money is absolutely fantastic.
SA: - recently I was quite surprised when I see a PDF book on the notion of money from our RBI under education series. Its title is “Money Kumar and the monetary policy”. That is like a popular children book with well embellished diagrams, animations and illustrations exactly the way your book “Free your mind -a political economy reader” is compiled. I was trying to find the actual difference between the two because both have been designed in a similar way. In your book, the idea of money is libertarian and in the RBI book, the idea is exactly Keynesian. I think that our central bank knows what is important vis-a-vis manufacturing the consent of masses. And they are doing it right from childhood.
SC:-that's why they want control over the education system.
SA:-do you really feel that Web 2.0 technologies will really usher in an era of empowerment, where people can propagate their ideas with full freedom and will be able to break the monopoly of both the education system and central banking?
SC:-I have no idea about these technological things except to say that these tools are deeply empowering to the individuals, and they will one day break down the control systems. For example, blogging, this is very empowering to the individual. Imagine 10 years ago, you write in some newspaper or magazine but the editor cuts it, edits it or even delays it. That was how you had to work. Now the time has come when you can express your opinion without any control on your own blog. A reader has free choice; here she can choose to read whatever suits her. So, this empowerment of individual is something of the biggest hope of contemporary times. When intellectuals and talented people are working in an organisation, they have to live by the rules of control systems but if they are largely free and active thinking agents empowered by technology, one cannot control them. I think we in India have a historic opportunity. See, the countries that don't suffer, they don't change. For example, in America, they don't see the depth of the problem because they are not suffering. Okay, they changed Bush, brought Obama but not more than that. But countries which are suffering very badly, they will change the things. That's the big promise this country has. We also have a free press, we know English, and we have a good relationship with lots of countries. So, India is a land where there is a chance if we get our arguments straight and put it forward. We can win public acceptance for the right ideas as you said that you found ready listeners even among Marxians. Once you see that the idea of collective property is barbaric, you cannot support it; even in my local fish market where there is no government and if the fish is in front of a fellow, you believe they are his private property. You make an exchange, fill your bag with fish, give him money and that's it. The money is his property now. The whole exchange is based upon the idea of private property.
Actually, the law is a subject that we must study. The economists have actually confused everything. The study of economics yields very inadequate answers unless and until you happen to find Carl Menger which you will rarely find in any library and when I'm talking about law, I'm not talking about civil law rather I'm talking about classical liberal jurisprudence. There, you have all the answers and the solution is not really in the regulation because regulation is bureaucratic rather what I'm talking about is the rule of law. Who is the issuer of this note, if he doesn't redeem the note on demand, punish him, execute him. It's a very serious moral obligation of a banker to fulfil its promise of abiding by the contract. It's a matter of social trust. If the banking collapses, the whole society will break down. The whole society will go corrupt if the banking is based upon corrupt practices. You may not be killed for rape or murder but if it is a banking fraud, you must be executed. Desoto has given a story of Spain where a banker was executed right before his bank because he did not redeem the note he had issued.
SA:-I had come to you with a set of prepared questions but now I feel that the direction of interview is such that those prepared questions do not fit in the context. When I actually framed these questions, I was not actually focused upon the notion of free money but now I think that the idea of money should be centrally located in the whole research problem. Let me try a bit differently. The human greed to extract surplus for selfish purpose is an age-old malady. They keep twisting the definition of consumption and try to package it in selfish terms. Recently talking to a friend from International Marketing, I faced a serious retort that humans are like virus; they only travel from one level of consumption to the other level of consumption. They don’t identify the rights of non-human species as equally important rights. Human Tendency of usurping the ecological surplus is still an unsolved mystery. Do you feel that the liberty to consume is subservient to the bigger definitions of order?
SC:-No-No, the kind of words for this question are not being chosen properly. Let's try to put it in the right manner. The libertarian believes that money evolves spontaneously in a free society. Money is something which everybody accepts as money. It should not be determined by fiat; not by the government decree; not by legal tender. So, that is the libertarian idea of money. It is what we freely accept. For example, what Ron Paul calls Liberty dollar. It is something that everybody will accept as money; it has nothing to do with the government. The duty of the government is to catch the guy who doesn't fulfil his promise, who doesn't follow the rules of contract or who tries to debase the money but more than that, the government doesn't need to control the rest of monetary matters. The government doesn't and needs not produce the money. A similar thing applies on paper money which is actually a property title which should pursue the rules of a contract. It should be redeemable on demand. I'm simply discussing the legal aspect of money.
Now we come to the liberty to consume. Why do we work? Do we work because we enjoy doing bloody work? Did you enjoy teaching political science to those who are not interested in learning? You do it in order to consume the money derived out of it. So, if I give you the right to work as Manmohan Singh has done and do not give you the right to spend on the best possible goods that the market (the global market) can provide to you, of what use is your right to work? So, the right to pursue is the basic human right.
SA:-if it is a human right, can we really transform the right to stable and positive purchasing power as a fundamental human right in the international jurisprudence?
SC:-it always was. There was law merchant that was the governing international commerce. It's a private law; for merchants, for private people.
SA:-why it's not a part of human rights literature?
SC:-because this notion of human rights is a bogus government controlled notion of Law. In an earlier age, there was no such thing as human rights. What are human rights? They are guaranteed by the government and who breaks them? It's the government. So, it makes no sense. Yes, you need property rights and in an exchange, the money should be backed by the real property. On the basis of that, all trade will be free and everybody shall have the liberty to compete with everybody else; all international trade will be free and as a result, the consumption will go up and prices of all commodities shall slowly fall. The price of money shall steadily rise and you would have fall of prices for the whole of your life. If you do it today, your children will have it. What costs six Lakhs today shall cost five lakhs next year and so on-so forth. We will have an era of just the opposite of inflation. It will improve the real consumption and generate the real effective demand. So, the consumption is not an evil rather you need to free it so as to improve it. The fun lies in consumption.
SA:-but we are so used to the idea of two big evils; one is market and the other is consumerism. We find it too difficult rather almost impossible to free us of these two back thinking blocks.
SC:-I don't feel the same when I watch the current generation. They are happy with their mobile phones, coffee culture, Levi jeans, fancy cars, fancy sunglasses and computers.
SA:-who the people you feel were the ones in India who really countered the government controlled definition of money?
SC:-I don't find many though around 1994-95, I heard late Prof R K Amin talking of it. I don't think that Prof B R Shenoy talked of private money but RK Amin definitely did it.
SA:-so, the entire period of 40-50 years without any idea of free money?
SC:-it's all a government monopoly on education. RK Amin was as a Swatantra Party M.P. and a Professor. An excellent man.
SA:-let's talk something about the social history of banking and credit flows in India. In some particular groups/castes like Marwaris, Gujratis or Jains, the availability of finance is sometimes at a very low rate of interest and the chances of non-payment are rare. Even, the intergenerational flow of credit is also very prevalent. The element of financial trust within them is so strong that they are able to dominate the businesses in the remote corners of India like North-East, Calcutta, Southern India; much afar from their home-towns. Their techniques of cost control are very solid and effective. In total contrast to that, the government controlled banking is not able to generate such a highly amount of financial trust and credibility. Somehow, I feel that the grass-root history of private moneys, community controlled credit networks, local currencies and common law backed practices is an area which has remained almost untouched in the mainstream academics. Around 1849, India had 20% share of the global trade which could not have been possible without this seamless network of credit and finance but we are so used to regarding the private money lender as an exploitative person that we are not able to see beyond his ideological bondage.
SC: - See, there is either economics or applied economics which includes economic history. When the entire subject is controlled by the government, how will you get the real facts out? It will not allow you to study what's not in its own interest. It's a control system where they control your thought. We had free knowledge where freethinking scholars could compete with their ideas and win public acceptance. A scholar is an individual; it's not a university competing with another university. If a scholar feels that somebody has not studied an area of due importance, here he will take that opportunity and create a niche around it. He will study it and write about it. There are lots of unusual histories in the world which have not been discovered primarily because there is no independence of scholarship like I read a lovely history of princely states of India from a person who is a British. Nobody has ever studied that. The hundreds of princely states which might not be very important to the contemporary government influenced historians. There are lots of interesting stories even from Rajasthan. They were two castes who were called Charans and Bhatts who were very close or even considered almost equivalent to the King. The main job of one of them was the job of a guarantor who used to guarantee the implementation of a contract with a foreigner. That was why he had a very high ranking almost as close to the King because he could ask the King to use force in order to implement a contract. This was not like a central banking practice rather it was meant to uphold the rule of law. It was kind of a way to ensure the credibility of business with outsiders. The interesting thing was that this guy, Charan was also the historian of the King's family. So, at all the important functions of the state, he would recite the history of his family aloud. If some king in the family did the wrong thing, he would recite that in the next state function. So, there was a kind of moral control on the monarch from the side of business community exercised through these offices.
SA:-that's really interesting.
SC:-we have been thinking that they were totalitarians. It could not have been like that. No King could have afforded that for a longer period. So, this idea of Indian banking history as well as the economic history is very badly studied in India.
SA:-do you find any hopes?
SC:-well, I found one hope when I met one of the Vice Chancellor of a deemed university. I asked him, “why do you call it a deemed university, why simply not call it a university? Why call it deemed; it looks so stupid? He answered back, “We want to distinguish it from the doomed universities.” (Both laugh)
SA:-initially, I wanted to ask you about Euro but again, it's a kind of regulation and a bit larger kind of central banking which you have been criticising. Don't you think that the central banking argument is trying to rediscover itself through regionalisation?
SC:-these are all bad ideas and in our region, it simply can't work. In Europe, they had around 30 to 40 years of experience of working with pan –regional organisations. They tried to establish a common market, removed Visa restrictions, movement of people, stopped the wars and ensured free trade internally. In our region, it cannot happen and it should not happen rather we should move towards the idea of sound money. We are a poor country and we need to save the purchasing power by not allowing the debasement of money. At least, in America, there is one candidate, Ron Paul for sound money. Once he was a Republican candidate for president and lost out to John McCain. And the media did not cover him at all. I don't know why? He is still active and running a campaign for liberty on dollar, Liberty dollar, backed by gold. I think he will come back. Let this Obama mania be over.
SA:-you mean to say that coming of Obama is only a cosmetic change in the mainstream military industrial complex of America?
SC:-I'm afraid, but yes. And this complex is not just military and industrial it's also extend to media, banking and university. They're all part of same block.
SA: - No doubt, there is a lot of literature on the issues of free banking and alternative modes of money but the basic problem is how to disintegrate the political and monetary sovereignty from each other. The problem acquires much more serious threat when the state develops a schizophrenic mindset against the private issue of currency and the whole legal, banking and administrative system acts accordingly? Don't you think that libertarians are in a state of serious risk?
SC:-I think so. We need to be safe. It may happen that someday, some state agent comes and finishes me off assuming it to be his duty towards the state. But, what to do? You'll have to take certain risks and a certain kind of methodology to propagate the idea of sound money. You have to prepare the second line of defence. That's why I blog so that the message goes out to the maximum number of people. You educate the people and that's the best method to fight back.
(This interview was conducted at Sauvik’s residence at New Delhi 30-12- 2008.)

Monday, January 5, 2009

An Interview Series on Theory, Money and Freedom-1.0

With Mr. Parth J. Shah
He is the founder-President of a New-Delhi based think-tank, Centre for Civil Society. Parth's research and advocacy work centres on the themes of economic freedom (law, liberty and livelihood campaign), choice and competition in education (fund students, not schools), property right approach for the environment (terracotta vision of stewardship), and good governance (new public management and the duty to publish). He has conceptualised and organised liberal educational programs for the Indian youth including Liberty & Society Seminars, Jeevika Livelihood Documentary Competition, and Researching Reality Internship Program. He has edited Morality of Markets, Friedman on India, Profiles in Courage: Dissent on Indian Socialism, Do Corporations Have Social Responsibility? and co-edited Law, Liberty & Livelihood: Making a Living on the Street; Terracotta Reader: A Market Approach to the Environment; BR Shenoy: Theoretical Vision and BR Shenoy: Economic Prophecies and Agenda for Change.
Sunil Aggarwal (SA):- I have been working in the interface zone of International Relations (IR) theory and International Political Economy (IPE). This is the site of some of the fundamental changes in the global distribution of power, to put it accurately the “open ranges” as Susan Strange once said about this. My choice of the research within this is regarding the conceptual framework of the currency which is nothing but a politically determined definition of money. In general, it is national but it can be regional and international too. The irony of the scene is that despite the recognition of monetary power as a fundamental form of power, there has not developed a political theory of currency in IR literature. That forced me to venture outside the conventional domain of International Politics and a broad and extensive survey made me realize that a somewhat autonomous definition of money does exist in the Libertarian thought and that was precisely the context that brought me to you, Mr. Parth. A couple of years back, John Nash, the famous proponent of the Game Theory and a controversial thinker picturized in a recent film ‘A Beautiful Mind’ came to India. He delievered some lectures on the notion of money. His lectures were focussed around the notion of “Ideal Money and Asymptotically Ideal Money” in which he criticized those who deplete/erode the value of money. In his trenchant critique, he even called the Keynesians ‘Bolsheviks’ of economics. The public response to his lectures was deadening silence then and afterwards. His focus was to maintain the purchasing power of the money as this is also the goal of a sound macroeconomic management as practised by the Central Banks but still, the entire idea almost got sidelined. How would you account for this silence in the Indian public space both at the level of discourse and popular reality?
Parth J. Shah (PJS):- When it comes to money, we are all creatures of habit. We are so used to the system that we simply cannot see any alternative to it. This monetary system is so much part of life that it is like a language to us. We may have a problem with a word but cannot even imagine having a problem with language per se. Similarly, money issued and managed by the government has become so deeply embedded in our lives that we don’t think of any system where money is not managed the same way. When I tell people about the idea of denationalized money or that of competing currencies, people simply react with sheer surprise like asking me, “Do you mean to say that I can have 4/5 different currencies in my pocket? Then, how will I decide which one to use and when to use? Won’t it be too confusing? Why not prefer single money?” I answer, “You find it confusing because you are not used to it; for example, if somebody makes it mandatory that you can have only one kind of cell phone, you will simply laugh over that. Since you are used to multiple kinds of cell phones, you cannot accept that situation.” Similarly, people are used to only one kind of money. Then, I elaborate to them about the examples of Scottish free banking period of 19th century where even illiterate people were using different currencies without any problem. As far as the records of that period are concerned including even the writings of Adam Smith in “The Wealth of Nations”, there was a good comparison between the single currency English Banking system and the Scottish system. The history shows that there were fewer banking crises and panics in Scotland and good growth as compared to that of England. But the people have short memory and hence do not change their way of thinking. Then, sometimes, I force them to understand the kind of place the credit and debit cards have made in their lives. To be honest, they are nothing but alternative forms of currencies.
SA:- The conventional Indian thinking on money is quite a mix of leftist and Keynesian thinking. It looked to me too fiscal, statist and centralist in nature. The post-independence banking studies have not focused on the social history of credit flows and the deep subaltern framework of financial networks which operated without any direct interference from the government or any imperial body. There existed a kind of common law in almost all our parts of India but these kinds of studies are utterly absent in Indian academia. This serious lack incapacitated the intellectual community and the policymakers from having non-ideological and pro-society view of money which was a natural evolution of many ages.
PJS:- They have focused but only upon the private money lender. The first guy that comes in our mind during our studies is that of greedy exploitative bania to whom the entire village is indebted. People take a loan from this person and they are never able to pay back that loan but to talk of principle not even the full interest. That is something which is not confined to just one life but over so many generations. This is the kind of image that Marxist historians have of private moneylenders. But the reality cannot be that stark and one-dimensional. The exploitative systems cannot be run over a course of generations. The role of cast is again biased. For example, take the case of Jains who dominate the diamond industry; their domain is in diamond business is because of their caste network. Their caste identity plays the role of a trust Bond that can be easily enforced through caste. The sensitivity of the trade is such that here, caste and functional efficiency get intermixed to create a viable business relationship. The caste substitutes the norms and power of a formal contract.
SA:- And this relationship is not confined to one generation rather the bond works through a series of generations e.g. in case of Marwaris who had a very strong inter-generational credit availability network but such a kind of historical approach to Indian banking, private and public is seriously absent. Instead of talking of sound money, we have developed parallel categories of capital and currency without establishing a direct link between the two. The capital is a meta-narrative term of flows of money in a global and theoretical sense while the currency is a national term for money giving the government an ultimate say in the affairs of money. The fact is that fluctuations in currency exchange rates are actually the sites of processes through which major capital movement happens but the irony is that a common man link between currency and capital is missing. Why?
PJS: - There are two different methods of looking at it. One is simply the capital theory itself like the Austrian theory of capital which is related with structure and stages of production where there is a totally different context. That is one part of the debate on capital theory. I won't go into that debate. As far as the currency is concerned, when Lenin came to into power, he thought that currency is itself a product of capitalism and it should be done away with. He even experimented with that and brought down the economy to the level of barter economy. He realised very soon that it won't work but after that, the entire issue of an autonomous definition of money got lost in the mumbo-jumbo of command economy.
SA: - In the post-1971 period of floating currency regimes, there has been a series of monetary crises which have devastated the real wealth in the hands of common people. Do you foresee any possibility of the ‘Right to Stable and Positive Purchasing Power’ being accommodated in the ‘Human Rights’ literature of the discipline?
PJS: - I think that would be an interesting way of looking at the things.
SA: - European Union may not be an alternative to the state-system or not even a full confederation but it has saved the individual citizens of member countries from unwanted currency fluctuations and currency transaction costs. But this kind of possibility is a non-starter in other parts of the world. To that, what is unique theoretical feat of the Euro and what is its limitation also?
PJS: - I think that putting Euro into the category of an achievement would be a misnomer because it is replacing national and smaller central banks with much larger regional central bank. My problem is not about how good it is rather my fear is what happens if it goes wrong. We have given the fate of millions of people into the hands of a behemoth which may be working efficiently today but it may not be true for coming days. The best way out could have been to encourage the competition between currencies so that no currency can depend upon state-sponsored anchors and retains its true value.
(The interview was conducted on 9-12-2008 at CCS, New Delhi.)